Sanctions against Russia: why Crimea is important

Half a year after the annexation: Russia’s economy is “nearing” stagnation due to the oil price crisis and the sanctions, but their desire to hold onto Crimea does not waver. Putin’s popularity is skyrocketing and the Russia's population celebrates the annexation. Putin is set on building a closer bonds with China to counteract the pressure from the West.

"Make a Choice!" an agitation billboard in Donetsk

Why were the sanctions implemented?

   The intention of the EU, imposing sanctions, is to prevent the destabilisation in the region. The US takes this tool to show its contempt for Russia's actions and pressure Russia strongly enough to change its decision regarding Crimea. According to the EU and the US, Russia should have long capitulated from Crimea and moderated its political and military involvement into Ukraine's internal politics.

   Until recently, the Crimean territory belonged to the state of Ukraine. I emphasise the word "state" to demonstrate that Crimea's accession to the Russian Federation is a phenomena with an impact of a regional significance. We live in the world of states, where states have their own territories. States have the sovereignty to govern their territory and the people. The international relations are majorly built on the strengths and weaknesses of the states, and less so of the individuals. Consequently, the international law treats states as its main subjects and thereby emphasises the need to respect their sovereignty.

   Russia's decision to acquire the Crimean territory, "given" to Russia by the Crimean people, essentially breaks the rule of international relations to respect sovereignty. One might say that Crimea has decided on its fate in the referendum, so it has a legitimate right to accept its current destiny. However, if this was true we would not be witnessing  such massive political outcry from various international actors. The concept of the right to self-determination by no means overrides territorial integrity, just because Russia treats it as such. Moreover, given the apparent lack of political support for Russia's move to annex Crimea in the UN GA, the situation exactly proves this point.

   The sanctions regime is a state's instrument increasingly used against the violators of an international norm. Russia openly breaks the rules and the Western states impose a sanctions regime on Russia.

What happens now: the sanctions are too costly and Russia's actions are too unpredictable

From Wikipedia: Treaty on the adoption of Crimea to Russia

   
   Half a year later, we are looking at the growing concern and dissatisfaction of Western business elites, disrupted trade, the rising popularity of Putin's T-shirts, and torn Ukraine. Clearly, the sanctions damage Russia's economy and the global trade suffers too. Russia's political leadership does not lose the legitimacy but gains more public trust.

   Putin is popular, and what is worse for the West, he is worshipped like a celebrity. The sad truth is that Putin does not need to worry about his career even if the economy is stagnating. As long as Russia's citizens are happy with Russia's foreign policy, they do not blame Putin for the Crimea. Russia hopes to restore the trade balance by enacting a plan for a closer Sino-Russian economic cooperation. Nonetheless, it will fail as have failed the previous attempts.

   Furthermore, the sanctions cannot possibly win Russia's hearts, its population is not accustomed to to protect the international norms for ethical reasons. Russia has never felt like they belong to the Western world order and do not want to belong there. Certainly, the international norms are the rules to be respected, but they do not go hand-in-hand with a universal understanding of why the rules exist and what they are meant to  protect. This is something that sanctions cannot do; the punishment has only caused pain, but not a greater understanding.